Energy, transport, petrochemicals ... The challenges of "zero oil"

L’humanité peut-elle se passer d’« or noir », cette huile miracle tout à la fois source d’énergie et de matériaux essentiels à notre civilisation et menace pour sa survie ? La question agite les esprits depuis de nombreuses décennies. Déjà en 1956, le géophysicien américain Marion King Hubbert s’était penché sur cette question pour le compte de la major Shell. A sa suite, nombre d’autres scientifiques ont théorisé le fameux « pic pétrolier », préfigurant le moment, sans cesse repoussé, où la production de cette ressource tarissable entrera dans sa phase déclinante. Jusqu’à quand, un siècle et demi après le premier forage aux Etats-Unis, l’exploration restera-t-elle assez rentable pour les majors pétrolières ? Sous terre se trouvent assez de réserves prouvées pour tenir au moins cinquante ans sur la base de la consommation annuelle d’aujourd’hui. Il n’est pas impossible qu’elles y restent bien plus longtemps que cela.

Because as some industrialists would like to push the end of oil, as much the environment defenders intend to hasten it.The awareness of the struggle to be carried out against climate change has already led to political objectives.That, for example, to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 (Europe, United States), 2060 (China), or even 2070 (India).These "zero" scenarios, that is to say without surplus greenhouse gases compared to natural or artificial storage capacities, still require a lot of imagination.They assume a challenge that is at the same time technical, political, social and economic: to give up fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas).In other words, getting rid of the main sources of energy in the coming decades: more than 80 % of consumption today, including around a third for oil resources.Here is an overview of the challenges to take up an oil without oil, in order of increasing difficulty.

Energy: Stop burning oil

"The first use we can think of it will be easy to separate is the combustion of petroleum to provide energy.Besides, we could even say that it is a shame to burn a product of such complexity, "said François Kalaydjian, head of the" Economy and Watch "management of IFP Energies Nouvelles (ex-French oil institute).Intended for electricity production, oil power plants already represent only almost 4 % of barrels consumed in 2019.Heat and cook your food with the same fuel also occupy a minority part, although significant: almost 8 % of barrels, according to the International Energy Agency (AIE).

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